Predicting Trial, Repeat, and Sales Response from Alternative Media Plans

A recent article by the author (Zufryden, 1981) reported empirical results from the use of a new methodology (ZAPEM) that relates exposures from particular TV media schedules to consumer purchase-response behavior. The methodology, unlike its predecessors, predicts measures of media effectiveness that include a brand's trial, cumulative penetration, and repeat-purchase patterns as a function of alternative TV media plans. Hence, in contrast to previous methodologies that utilize lower-level media effectiveness criteria such as reach, frequency, cost-per-thousand, awareness, or even attitude change, the approach ties directly to higher-level, sales-related, company objectives. The approach can be implemented on the basis of individual purchase panel data (i.e., such as that from MRCA or NPD Research, Inc.) from matched test markets during media weight tests. The approach can similarly be based on purchase data from UPC scanner panels such as that available from TRIM or the Behaviorscan system.