Tweets to the Streets? Effects of a Leader’s Social Media Messaging on Nationalist Mobilization

Can a leader’s use of social media in an external crisis increase domestic nationalist mobilization? In this research note I leverage an original writing simulation on serving national security elites in Pakistan to demonstrate that the vocabulary that leaders employ is endogenous to their messaging platform, with crisis messages composed for Twitter/X communicating greater levels of affective content than similar content composed for official communiqués. I then randomize elite-curated content across an online sample of Pakistani social media users to show that bundling escalatory intent with affective platform-specific vocabulary reduced respondent sensitivity to crisis details, increased public jingoism, and slightly increased domestic willingness to engage in street protest. I discuss the strategic implications of these findings for leaders who, conscious of the mobilizing risks of social media, may wish to avoid tying their hands in a crisis.