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Testing Instability In A Predictive Regression Model With Nonstationary Regressors

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  • Cai, Zongwu
  • Wang, Yunfei
  • Wang, Yonggang

Abstract

It is well known that allowing the coefficients to be time-varying in a predictive model with possibly nonstationary regressors can help to deal with instability in predictability associated with linear predictive models. In this paper, an L2-type test statistic is proposed to test the stability of the coefficient vector, and the asymptotic distributions of the proposed test statistic are developed under both null and alternative hypotheses. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed test statistic and an empirical example is examined to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed testing method.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Zongwu & Wang, Yunfei & Wang, Yonggang, 2015. "Testing Instability In A Predictive Regression Model With Nonstationary Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 953-980, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:31:y:2015:i:05:p:953-980_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Break Detection in Quantile Predictive Regression Models with Persistent Covariates," Papers 2302.05193, arXiv.org.
    2. Georgiev, Iliyan & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2018. "Testing for parameter instability in predictive regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 101-118.
    3. Yannick Hoga, 2024. "Persistence-Robust Break Detection in Predictive Quantile and CoVaR Regressions," Papers 2410.05861, arXiv.org.
    4. Yu, Deshui & Chen, Li, 2024. "Local predictability of stock returns and cash flows," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Fukang Zhu & Mengya Liu & Shiqing Ling & Zongwu Cai, 2020. "Testing for Structural Change of Predictive Regression Model to Threshold Predictive Regression Model," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202021, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2020.
    6. Yijie Fei, 2024. "A joint test of predictability and structural break in predictive regressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 985-1013, September.
    7. Zongwu Cai & Seong Yeon Chang, 2018. "A New Test In A Predictive Regression with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201811, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2018.
    8. Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2019. "Predictive Regressions," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28554, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    9. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao, 2019. "A model-free consistent test for structural change in regression possibly with endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 206-242.
    10. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Predictability Tests Robust against Parameter Instability," Papers 2307.15151, arXiv.org.
    11. Hong, Shaoxin & Zhang, Zhengyi & Cai, Zongwu, 2021. "Testing heteroskedasticity for predictive regressions with nonstationary regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    12. Deshui Yu & Yayi Yan, 2023. "Joint dynamics of stock returns and cash flows: A time‐varying present‐value framework," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 513-541, September.
    13. Erhua Zhang & Xiaojun Song & Jilin Wu, 2022. "A non‐parametric test for multi‐variate trend functions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 856-871, November.
    14. Yu, Deshui & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Time-varying predictability of the long horizon equity premium based on semiparametric regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    15. Liu, Xiaohui & Yang, Bingduo & Cai, Zongwu & Peng, Liang, 2019. "A unified test for predictability of asset returns regardless of properties of predicting variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 141-159.

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