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Keynes's Theory of Probability and Its Relevance to His Economics: Three Theses

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  • Cottrell, Allin

Abstract

One calls a lot of things propositions. If one sees this, then one can discard the idea Russell and Frege had that logic is a science of certain objects – propositions, functions, the logical constants – and that logic is like a natural science such as zoology and talks about these objects as zoology talks of animals. Like a natural science, it could supposedly discover certain relations. For example, Keynes claimed to discover a probability relation which was like implication, yet not quite implication. But logic is a calculus, not a natural science, and in it one can make inventions but not discoveries.Giving grounds, however, justifying the evidence, comes to an end; – but the end is not certain propositions' striking us immediately as true, i.e. it is not a kind of seeing on our part; it is our acting, which lies at the bottom of the language-game. (Wittgenstein, 1969, §204)

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  • Cottrell, Allin, 1993. "Keynes's Theory of Probability and Its Relevance to His Economics: Three Theses," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 25-51, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:ecnphi:v:9:y:1993:i:01:p:25-51_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Feduzi, Alberto, 2010. "On Keynes's conception of the weight of evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 338-351, November.
    2. Muchlinski, Elke, 2011. "Die Rezeption der John Maynard Keynes Manuskripte von 1904 bis 1911. Anregungen für die deutschsprachige Diskussion," Discussion Papers 2011/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Muchlinski, Elke, 2003. "Épistémologie et probabilité chez Keynes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(1), pages 57-70, Mars-Juin.
    4. Alberto Feduzi, 2010. "On Keynes's conception of the Weight of Evidence," Post-Print hal-00870185, HAL.
    5. Muchlinski, Elke, 2004. "Kontroversen in der internationalen Währungspolitik: Retrospektive zu Keynes-White-Boughton & IMF," Discussion Papers 2004/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

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