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Long-Term Consequences of Election Results

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  • Fowler, Anthony
  • Hall, Andrew B.

Abstract

Voters in US elections receive markedly different representation depending on which candidate they elect, and because of incumbent advantages, the effects of this choice persist for many years. What are the long-term consequences of these two phenomena? Combining electoral and legislative roll-call data in a dynamic regression discontinuity design, this study assesses the long-term consequences of election results for representation. Across the US House, the US Senate and state legislatures, the effects of ‘coin-flip’ elections persist for at least a decade in all settings, and for as long as three decades in some. Further results suggest that elected officials do not adapt their roll-call voting to their districts’ preferences over time, and that voters do not systematically respond by replacing incumbents.

Suggested Citation

  • Fowler, Anthony & Hall, Andrew B., 2017. "Long-Term Consequences of Election Results," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 351-372, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:47:y:2017:i:02:p:351-372_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jon H. Fiva & Oda Nedregård, 2022. "How Does Party Discipline Affect Legislative Behavior? Evidence from Within-Session Variation in Lame Duck Status," CESifo Working Paper Series 9697, CESifo.
    2. Leandro De Magalhaes & Salomo Hirvonen, 2021. "A second chance elsewhere. Re-running for parliament after a close race defeat: UK vs US," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 21/744, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Devin Caughey & James Dunham & Christopher Warshaw, 2018. "The ideological nationalization of partisan subconstituencies in the American States," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 133-151, July.
    4. Davide Cipullo, 2021. "Gender Gaps in Political Careers: Evidence from Competitive Elections," CESifo Working Paper Series 9075, CESifo.

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