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Juking the Stats? Authoritarian Information Problems in China

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  • Wallace, Jeremy L.

Abstract

Economic statistics inform citizens of general conditions, while central leaders use them to evaluate local officials. Are economic data systematically manipulated? After establishing discrepancies in economic data series cross-nationally, this article examines Chinese sub-national growth data. It leverages variation in the likelihood of manipulation over two dimensions, arguing that politically sensitive data are more likely to be manipulated at politically sensitive times. Gross domestic product (GDP) releases generate headlines, while highly correlated electricity production and consumption data are relatively unnoticed. In Chinese provinces, the difference between GDP and electricity growth increases in years with leadership turnover, which is consistent with juking the stats for political reasons. The analysis points to the political role of information and the limits of non-electoral accountability mechanisms in authoritarian regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Wallace, Jeremy L., 2016. "Juking the Stats? Authoritarian Information Problems in China," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 11-29, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:46:y:2016:i:01:p:11-29_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Siddique Abu Bakkar, 2020. "Identity-based Earning Discrimination among Chinese People," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-42, January.
    2. Mengting Ruan & Xiaolu Zhao, 2022. "Fiscal Pressure, Policy Choices and Regional Economic Disparity: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Thoenig, Mathias & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jeremy & Rohner, Dominic, 2019. "Ethnic Conflicts and the Informational Dividend of Democracy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14182, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jinghan Zeng, 2021. "China’s Artificial Intelligence Innovation: A Top‐Down National Command Approach?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(3), pages 399-409, May.
    5. Yuyuan Chang & Wen He & Jianling Wang, 2021. "Government Initiated Corporate Social Responsibility Activities: Evidence from a Poverty Alleviation Campaign in China," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 173(4), pages 661-685, November.
    6. Leutert, Wendy, 2021. "Innovation through iteration: Policy feedback loops in China’s economic reform," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. H. Christoph Steinhardt & Jan Delhey, 2020. "Socio-Economic Modernization and the “Crisis of Trust” in China: A Multi-level Analysis of General and Particular Trust," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 923-949, December.
    8. Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Arusha Cooray & Samuel Brazys, 2018. "Nothing to hide: Commitment to, compliance with, and impact of the special data dissemination standard," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 55-77, March.
    9. David Karpa & Torben Klarl & Michael Rochlitz, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence, Surveillance, and Big Data," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2108, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    10. Zhang, Ping & Shi, XunPeng & Sun, YongPing & Cui, Jingbo & Shao, Shuai, 2019. "Have China's provinces achieved their targets of energy intensity reduction? Reassessment based on nighttime lighting data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 276-283.
    11. Jing Wu & Hao Li & Keyang Li, 2020. "Local political chief turnover and economic growth: Evidence from China," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 441-466, July.
    12. Liu, Zhuang & Wong, T.J. & Yi, Yang & Zhang, Tianyu, 2022. "Authoritarian transparency: China's missing cases in court disclosure," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 221-239.
    13. Ma, Ben & Liu, Min, 2022. "Improved statistical consistency: The effect of data revisions on the energy use gap between China and its provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Zhang, Qi & Hu, Yi & Jiao, Jianbin & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Is refined oil price regulation a “shock absorber” for crude oil price shocks?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    15. van der Kamp, Denise & Lorentzen, Peter & Mattingly, Daniel, 2017. "Racing to the Bottom or to the Top? Decentralization, Revenue Pressures, and Governance Reform in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 164-176.
    16. Michael Beckley, 2020. "China's Economy Is Not Overtaking America's," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 32(2), pages 10-23, June.
    17. Chen, Shuo & Qiao, Xue & Zhu, Zhitao, 2021. "Chasing or cheating? Theory and evidence on China's GDP manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 657-671.
    18. Shi, Xiangyu & Xi, Tianyang, 2018. "Race to safety: Political competition, neighborhood effects, and coal mine deaths in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 79-95.
    19. Pan, Jianping & Weng, Ruoyu & Yin, Sirui & Fu, Xiaoqing (Maggie), 2022. "Central supervision and earnings management: Quasi-experimental evidence from China," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(3).
    20. Liu, Ping & James Hueng, C., 2017. "Measuring real business condition in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 261-274.
    21. Stan Hok-Wui Wong & Kelvin Chun-Man Chan, 2021. "Determinants of political purges in autocracies: Evidence from ancient Chinese dynasties," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 583-598, May.
    22. Kerner, Andrew & Crabtree, Charles, 2018. "The Political Economy of Data Production," SocArXiv qsxae, Center for Open Science.
    23. David Karpa & Torben Klarl & Michael Rochlitz, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence, Surveillance, and Big Data," Papers 2111.00992, arXiv.org.
    24. Jesse S Turiel & Robert K Kaufmann, 2021. "Evidence of air quality data misreporting in China: An impulse indicator saturation model comparison of local government-reported and U.S. embassy-reported PM2.5 concentrations (2015–2017)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, April.

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