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Combatant Fragmentation and the Dynamics of Civil Wars

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  • Findley, Michael
  • Rudloff, Peter

Abstract

Civil war dynamics and outcomes are shaped by processes of change largely unaccounted for in current studies. This examination explores how the fragmentation of combatants, especially the weaker actors, affects the duration and outcomes of civil wars. Some results of a computational modelling analysis are consistent with the article's expectations, several of them are counterintuitive. They show that when combatants fragment, the duration of war does not always increase and such wars often end in negotiated agreements, contrasting with the expectations of literatures on spoilers, moderates and extremists. Empirical cases, such as Iraq, Congo, Chechnya and the Sudan, illustrate the importance of fragmentation. This study demonstrates the value of accounting for diverse changes in actors and circumstances when studying the dynamics of war.

Suggested Citation

  • Findley, Michael & Rudloff, Peter, 2012. "Combatant Fragmentation and the Dynamics of Civil Wars," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 879-901, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:42:y:2012:i:04:p:879-901_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jori Breslawski & Brandon Ives, 2019. "Killing for God? Factional Violence on the Transnational Stage," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(3), pages 617-643, March.
    2. Arı Barış & Gizelis Theodora-Ismene, 2017. "Conflict Fragmentation Index," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 1-7, December.

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