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Assessing the Steps to War

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  • SENESE, PAUL D.
  • VASQUEZ, JOHN A.

Abstract

This analysis outlines and tests the steps-to-war explanation of international conflict. At the core of this explanation is the expectation that territorial disputes are a key source of war and that as states that have these disputes make politically relevant alliances, have recurring disputes and build up their military forces against each other, they will experience ever-increasing probabilities of war. The absence of these risk factors is expected to lessen the chances of severe conflict. Utilizing the Militarized Interstate Dispute data of the Correlates of War project, the data analyses provide full support for the steps-to-war explanation during the 1816–1945 era and partial support for the Cold War nuclear 1946–92 span. Among the findings for this latter period is the presence of a curvilinear relationship between the number of prior disputes and the probability of war – after a large number of disputes, states begin to ritualize their behaviour at levels short of war.

Suggested Citation

  • Senese, Paul D. & Vasquez, John A., 2005. "Assessing the Steps to War," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 607-633, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:35:y:2005:i:04:p:607-633_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William Reed & Daina Chiba, 2010. "Decomposing the Relationship Between Contiguity and Militarized Conflict," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 61-73, January.
    2. Stephen L. Quackenbush, 2010. "Territorial Issues and Recurrent Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(3), pages 239-252, July.
    3. Kentaro Sakuwa, 2017. "The Regional Consequences of Territorial Disputes: An Empirical Analysis of the South China Sea Disputes," Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, , vol. 4(3), pages 316-336, December.
    4. Marc L. Hutchison, 2011. "Territorial Threat, Mobilization, and Political Participation in Africa," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(3), pages 183-208, July.
    5. Justwan Florian & Fisher Sarah K., 2017. "International Adjudication and Public Opinion in Territorial Disputes: Evidence from a Survey Experiment Using Amazon Mechanical Turk," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-18, August.
    6. Steven V. Miller & Douglas M. Gibler, 2011. "Democracies, Territory, and Negotiated Compromises," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(3), pages 261-279, July.
    7. Margit Bussmann & John R. Oneal, 2007. "Do Hegemons Distribute Private Goods?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 88-111, February.

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