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Modeling Dependent Risks with Multivariate Erlang Mixtures

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  • Lee, Simon C.K.
  • Lin, X. Sheldon

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a class of multivariate Erlang mixtures and present its desirable properties. We show that a multivariate Erlang mixture could be an ideal multivariate parametric model for insurance modeling, especially when modeling dependence is a concern. When multivariate losses are governed by a multivariate Erlang mixture, many quantities of interest such as joint density and Laplace transform, moments, and Kendall's tau have a closed form. Further, the class is closed under convolutions and mixtures, which enables us to model aggregate losses in a straightforward way. We also introduce a new concept called quasi-comonotonicity that can be useful to derive an upper bound for individual losses in a multivariate stochastic order and upper bounds for stop-loss premiums of the aggregate loss. Finally, an EM algorithm tailored to multivariate Erlang mixtures is presented and numerical experiments are performed to test the efficiency of the algorithm.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Simon C.K. & Lin, X. Sheldon, 2012. "Modeling Dependent Risks with Multivariate Erlang Mixtures," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 153-180, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:42:y:2012:i:01:p:153-180_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandru V. Asimit & Raluca Vernic & Riċardas Zitikis, 2013. "Evaluating Risk Measures and Capital Allocations Based on Multi-Losses Driven by a Heavy-Tailed Background Risk: The Multivariate Pareto-II Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Alessandro Staino & Emilio Russo & Massimo Costabile & Arturo Leccadito, 2023. "Minimum capital requirement and portfolio allocation for non-life insurance: a semiparametric model with Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraint," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-32, December.
    3. Surya, Budhi Arta, 2022. "Conditional multivariate distributions of phase-type for a finite mixture of Markov jump processes given observations of sample path," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Bae, Taehan & Miljkovic, Tatjana, 2024. "Loss modeling with the size-biased lognormal mixture and the entropy regularized EM algorithm," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 182-195.
    5. Gildas Ratovomirija, 2015. "Multivariate Stop loss Mixed Erlang Reinsurance risk: Aggregation, Capital allocation and Default risk," Papers 1501.07297, arXiv.org.
    6. Mohammed, Nawaf & Furman, Edward & Su, Jianxi, 2021. "Can a regulatory risk measure induce profit-maximizing risk capital allocations? The case of conditional tail expectation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 425-436.
    7. Fung, Tsz Chai & Badescu, Andrei L. & Lin, X. Sheldon, 2019. "A class of mixture of experts models for general insurance: Theoretical developments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 111-127.
    8. Alexeev Vitali & Ignatieva Katja & Liyanage Thusitha, 2021. "Dependence Modelling in Insurance via Copulas with Skewed Generalised Hyperbolic Marginals," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-20, April.
    9. Ren Jiandong & Zitikis Ricardas, 2017. "CMPH: a multivariate phase-type aggregate loss distribution," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 304-315, December.
    10. Cossette, Hélène & Marceau, Etienne & Perreault, Samuel, 2015. "On two families of bivariate distributions with exponential marginals: Aggregation and capital allocation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 214-224.
    11. Eric C. K. Cheung & Oscar Peralta & Jae-Kyung Woo, 2021. "Multivariate matrix-exponential affine mixtures and their applications in risk theory," Papers 2201.11122, arXiv.org.
    12. Jonas Alm, 2015. "Signs of dependence and heavy tails in non-life insurance data," Papers 1501.00833, arXiv.org.
    13. Albrecher, Hansjörg & Cheung, Eric C.K. & Liu, Haibo & Woo, Jae-Kyung, 2022. "A bivariate Laguerre expansions approach for joint ruin probabilities in a two-dimensional insurance risk process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 96-118.
    14. Cheung, Eric C.K. & Ni, Weihong & Oh, Rosy & Woo, Jae-Kyung, 2021. "Bayesian credibility under a bivariate prior on the frequency and the severity of claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 274-295.
    15. Zoia, Maria Grazia & Biffi, Paola & Nicolussi, Federica, 2018. "Value at risk and expected shortfall based on Gram-Charlier-like expansions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 92-104.
    16. Cossette, Hélène & Marceau, Etienne & Mtalai, Itre, 2019. "Collective risk models with dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 153-168.
    17. Nawaf Mohammed & Edward Furman & Jianxi Su, 2021. "Can a regulatory risk measure induce profit-maximizing risk capital allocations? The case of Conditional Tail Expectation," Papers 2102.05003, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    18. Woo, Jae-Kyung, 2016. "On multivariate discounted compound renewal sums with time-dependent claims in the presence of reporting/payment delays," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 354-363.
    19. Ratovomirija, Gildas & Tamraz, Maissa & Vernic, Raluca, 2017. "On some multivariate Sarmanov mixed Erlang reinsurance risks: Aggregation and capital allocation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 197-209.
    20. Cheung, Eric C.K. & Peralta, Oscar & Woo, Jae-Kyung, 2022. "Multivariate matrix-exponential affine mixtures and their applications in risk theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 364-389.
    21. Mélina Mailhot & Mhamed Mesfioui, 2016. "Multivariate TVaR-Based Risk Decomposition for Vector-Valued Portfolios," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-16, September.
    22. Roel Verbelen & Katrien Antonio & Gerda Claeskens, 2016. "Multivariate mixtures of Erlangs for density estimation under censoring," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 429-455, July.

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