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Mortality Projection Based on the Wang Transform

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  • Jong, Piet De
  • Marshall, Claymore

Abstract

A new method for analysing and projecting mortality is proposed and examined. The method takes observed time series of survival probabilities, finds the corresponding z-scores in the standard normal distribution and forecasts the z-scores. The z-scores appear to follow a common simple linear progression in time and hence forecasting is straightforward. Analysis on the z-score scale offers useful insights into the way mortality evolves over time. The method and extensions are applied to Australian female mortality data to derive projections to the year 2100 in both survival probabilities and expectations of life.

Suggested Citation

  • Jong, Piet De & Marshall, Claymore, 2007. "Mortality Projection Based on the Wang Transform," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 149-161, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:37:y:2007:i:01:p:149-161_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani & Kehan Li, 2017. "An alternative class of distortion operators alternative tools to generate asymmetrical multimodal distributions," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17030, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani & Kehan Li, 2017. "An alternative class of distortion operators," Post-Print halshs-01543251, HAL.
    3. Chong It Tan & Jackie Li & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Uditha Balasooriya, 2016. "Stochastic modelling of the hybrid survival curve," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 307-331, December.
    4. Alexis Bienvenüe & Didier Rullière, 2012. "Iterative Adjustment of Survival Functions by Composed Probability Distortions," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 37(2), pages 156-179, September.
    5. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Søren Kjærgaard & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "The impact of the choice of life table statistics when forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(43), pages 1235-1268.
    6. Alexis Bienvenüe & Didier Rullière, 2009. "Sur une classe de transformations itérées pour l'ajustement et la simulation stochastique," Working Papers hal-00395495, HAL.
    7. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani & Kehan Li, 2017. "An alternative class of distortion operators," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01543251, HAL.
    8. Jacie Jia Liu, 2021. "A Study on Link Functions for Modelling and Forecasting Old-Age Survival Probabilities of Australia and New Zealand," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, January.

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