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A Statistical Approach to IBNR-Reserves in Marine Reinsurance

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  • Hertig, Joakim

Abstract

The run off-pattern of long-term reinsurance treaties is described by means and standard deviations of logarithmic increments of premiums and loss ratios in a normal distribution. From this description forecasts of ultimate claims and current IBNR-reserves are derived, with associated distributions and confidence limits. Aggregation from individual treaties to portfolio level is proposed by normal approximation. Security loading of IBNR-reserves is proposed by a contingency reserve at portfolio level.

Suggested Citation

  • Hertig, Joakim, 1985. "A Statistical Approach to IBNR-Reserves in Marine Reinsurance," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 171-183, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:15:y:1985:i:02:p:171-183_00
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    Cited by:

    1. D Kuang & Bent Nielsen & J P Nielsen, 2013. "The Geometric Chain-Ladder," Economics Papers 2013-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. D. Kuang & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Generalized Log-Normal Chain-Ladder," Economics Papers 2018-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Peters, Gareth W. & Dong, Alice X.D. & Kohn, Robert, 2014. "A copula based Bayesian approach for paid–incurred claims models for non-life insurance reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 258-278.
    4. Tsai, Cary Chi-Liang & Kim, Seyeon, 2022. "Model mortality rates using property and casualty insurance reserving methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 326-340.
    5. D. Kuang & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Generalized Log-Normal Chain-Ladder," Papers 1806.05939, arXiv.org.
    6. Nataliya Chukhrova & Arne Johannssen, 2021. "Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods with State Space Representations: A Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-55, November.
    7. Yixing Zhao & Rogemar Mamon & Heng Xiong, 2021. "Claim reserving for insurance contracts in line with the International Financial Reporting Standards 17: a new paid-incurred chain approach to risk adjustments," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, December.

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