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Probabilistic Causality, Selection Bias, and the Logic of the Democratic Peace

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  • SLANTCHEV, BRANISLAV L.
  • ALEXANDROVA, ANNA
  • GARTZKE, ERIK

Abstract

Rosato (2003) claims to have discredited democratic peace theories. However, the methodological approach adopted by the study cannot reliably generate the conclusions espoused by the author. Rosato seems to misunderstand the probabilistic nature of most arguments about democratic peace and ignores issues that an appropriate research design should account for. Further, the study's use of case studies and data sets without attention to selection-bias produces examples that actually support theories it seeks to undermine. These problems place in doubt the article's findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Slantchev, Branislav L. & Alexandrova, Anna & Gartzke, Erik, 2005. "Probabilistic Causality, Selection Bias, and the Logic of the Democratic Peace," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 459-462, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:99:y:2005:i:03:p:459-462_05
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Harrison & Nikolaus Wolf, 2014. "The Frequency of Wars," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: THE ECONOMICS OF COERCION AND CONFLICT, chapter 5, pages 121-149, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Bülent, Köksal & Abdülkadir, Civan, 2009. "Nükleer Enerji Sahibi Olma Kararını Etkileyen Faktörler ve Türkiye için Tahminler [Factors that Affect the Decision of Having Nuclear Energy and Predictions for Turkey]," MPRA Paper 30513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sebastian Rosato, 2011. "On the Democratic Peace," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 15, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Emilie M. Hafner-Burton & Jana von Stein & Erik Gartzke, 2008. "International Organizations Count," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(2), pages 175-188, April.

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