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Simple Explanations of Turnout Decline

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  • Cassel, Carol A.
  • Luskin, Robert C.

Abstract

Several recent studies have claimed to explain the post-1960 decline in U.S. presidential and congressional election turnout in terms of just a few variables. Abramson and Aldrich (1982) attribute the great bulk of the decline to aggregate declines in partisanship and political efficacy. Shaffer (1981) attributes still more of the decline to aggregate decreases in these same two variables plus age and following the campaign in the newspapers. And Kleppner (1982) attributes “virtually all†of the decline to aggregate decreases in the first three of these variables. We show how these studies measure explanation too generously and how the very short-handedness of their models makes them seem more successful than they are. These few variables, we conclude, leave most of the decline unexplained.

Suggested Citation

  • Cassel, Carol A. & Luskin, Robert C., 1988. "Simple Explanations of Turnout Decline," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 1321-1330, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:82:y:1988:i:04:p:1321-1330_19
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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth A. Bennion, 2005. "Caught in the Ground Wars: Mobilizing Voters during a Competitive Congressional Campaign," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 601(1), pages 123-141, September.
    2. Rachel Milstein Sondheimer & Donald P. Green, 2010. "Using Experiments to Estimate the Effects of Education on Voter Turnout," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 174-189, January.
    3. Andrews, Arlene Bowers, 1998. "An exploratory study of political attitudes and acts among child and family services workers," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 435-461, June.
    4. Donald P. Green & Jennifer K. Smith, 2003. "Professionalization of Campaigns and the Secret History of Collective Action Problems," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 15(3), pages 321-339, July.

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