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Turnout and the Vote: The Joke's on the Democrats

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  • DeNardo, James

Abstract

A heavy turnout is commonly believed to favor the Democrats. This study presents theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence that challenge the conventional view. Reasonable assumptions about the behavior of core and peripheral voters lead to the conclusion that the majority party is most likely to suffer when turnout increases, common sense notwithstanding. It also appears that the recent decay of partisan loyalties among voters has eroded the relationship between turnout and the vote.

Suggested Citation

  • DeNardo, James, 1980. "Turnout and the Vote: The Joke's on the Democrats," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 406-420, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:74:y:1980:i:02:p:406-420_16
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    Cited by:

    1. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel François, 2003. "Campagne électorale, préférences politiques et participation. Une étude empirique sur les élections législatives françaises de 1997," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    2. Bernard Grofman, 1998. "Rebuttal to Wuffle and Collet's Supposedly Irrefutable Evidence that Higher Turnout Benefits Republicans," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 10(2), pages 251-255, April.
    3. Bernard Tamas & Ron Johnston & Charles Pattie, 2022. "The impact of turnout on partisan bias in U.S. House elections, 1972–2018," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(1), pages 181-192, January.
    4. Knack, Stephen, 1997. "The reappearing American voter why did turnout rise in '92?," MPRA Paper 27250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. John E. Mcnulty, 2005. "Phone-Based GOTV—What’s on the Line? Field Experiments with Varied Partisan Components, 2002-2003," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 601(1), pages 41-65, September.
    6. A Wuffle & Christian Collet, 1997. "Why Democrats Shouldn't Vote (With Acknowledgements to R. Erikson)," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 9(1), pages 137-140, January.

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