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Great Punctuations: Prediction, Randomness, and the Evolution of Comparative Political Science

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  • BLYTH, MARK

Abstract

I argue that comparative politics has been shaped by two “Great Punctuations†that, on each occasion, transformed our conceptions of what the subfield is and what we do. Just before a punctuation occurs, the subfield seems especially coherent, united by a set of common assumptions, methods, theories, and so on, which are then punctuated by a series of events that destroys faith in them. The subfield then reconstitutes itself around new assumptions, until, just as coherence is achieved, the next punctuation occurs. To demonstrate why the sub-field has evolved in this way, I draw on probability theory to argue that the desire to be a predictive science causes us to imagine the world to be far more predictable than it actually is. This results in the development of theories that are surprised by events; hence the peculiar trajectory of the subfield.

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  • Blyth, Mark, 2006. "Great Punctuations: Prediction, Randomness, and the Evolution of Comparative Political Science," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 493-498, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:100:y:2006:i:04:p:493-498_06
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    1. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f5vtl5h9a73d5ls976m3igpqi is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Feduzi, Alberto & Runde, Jochen, 2011. "The uncertain foundations of the welfare state," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 613-627.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f5vtl5h9a73d5ls976m3igpqi is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Cornelia Woll, 2010. "Firm Interests in Uncertain Times: Business Lobbying in Multilateral Service Liberalization," Post-Print hal-00972803, HAL.
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f5vtl5h9a73d5ls976m3igpqi is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kai Jäger, 2013. "Sources of Franco-German corporate support for the euro: The effects of business network centrality and political connections," European Union Politics, , vol. 14(1), pages 115-139, March.
    7. Cornelia Woll, 2010. "Firm Interests in Uncertain Times: Business Lobbying in Multilateral Service Liberalization," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f5vtl5h9a73, Sciences Po.
    8. Cornelia Woll, 2010. "Firm Interests in Uncertain Times: Business Lobbying in Multilateral Service Liberalization," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00972803, HAL.
    9. Kai Jäger, 2017. "Studies on Issues in Political Economy since the Global Financial Crisis," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 71.

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