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Do not pay for a Danish interest guarantee. The law of the triple blow

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  • Guillén, Montserrat
  • Konicz, Agnieszka Karolina
  • Nielsen, Jens Perch
  • Pérez-Marín, Ana M.

Abstract

We have investigated the performance of pension schemes of with-profit policies containing a guaranteed minimum rate of return and we have found that the price of the guarantee measured in terms of lost returns is enormous. We use simple simulations rather than complex pricing methods to illustrate that the price of an interest guarantee is high in pension products that are currently commercialised in the market. We have found that the customer loses up to about 0.75% yearly in the rate of return when an interest guarantee is purchased, compared to the return of an equivalent saving strategy with the same risk at the level 95%. This can explain why such arrangements are not widely popular. Our approach can be used to inform clients, who are not experts in modern financial models, the impact of paying for an interest guarantee.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillén, Montserrat & Konicz, Agnieszka Karolina & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Pérez-Marín, Ana M., 2013. "Do not pay for a Danish interest guarantee. The law of the triple blow," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 192-209, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:anacsi:v:7:y:2013:i:02:p:192-209_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2021. "Forecasting benchmarks of long-term stock returns via machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 221-240, February.
    2. Scholz, Michael & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Sperlich, Stefan, 2015. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns based on yearly data: The long-term view," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 143-155.
    3. Scholz, Michael & Sperlich, Stefan & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2016. "Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-96.
    4. Konicz, Agnieszka Karolina & Mulvey, John M., 2015. "Optimal savings management for individuals with defined contribution pension plans," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 233-247.
    5. Alexander Bohnert, 2015. "The Impact of Guarantees on the Performance of Pension Saving Schemes: Insights from the Literature," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
    6. Bohnert, Alexander & Gatzert, Nadine & Jørgensen, Peter Løchte, 2015. "On the management of life insurance company risk by strategic choice of product mix, investment strategy and surplus appropriation schemes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 83-97.

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