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Sincronizaci—n de los ciclos comerciales entre Argentina, Brasil y sus principales socios comerciales de la UE

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Dami‡n Jacobo

    (Universidad Nacional de C—rdoba)

  • Alejandro Marengo

    (Universidad Nacional de C—rdoba)

Abstract

En el presente documento, aplicamos el filtro de Hodrick y Prescott para estudiar si las fluctuaciones econ—micas de la Argentina, el Brasil y sus principales socios comerciales de la Uni—n Europea (UE) siguieron una pauta similar en el per’odo 1995.1-2018.4. Cuando se analizan conjuntamente ambas econom’as sudamericanas, la mayor coincidencia se observa en las fluctuaciones del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) (casi el 75% de las observaciones se encuentran al mismo lado de la l’nea cero). Sin embargo, en cuanto al resto de los componentes del PIB, se observa un descenso en las coincidencias (las observaciones se acercan al 50%). Si bien el PIB argentino, el consumo privado y las importaciones tienen una correlaci—n significativa con sus contrapartes brasile–as, esta asociaci—n es bastante modesta. En cuanto a sus principales socios de la Uni—n Europea, es probable que la integraci—n comercial conduzca a una mayor sincronizaci—n de los ciclos comerciales para la Argentina, pero no para el Brasil.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Dami‡n Jacobo & Alejandro Marengo, 2020. "Sincronizaci—n de los ciclos comerciales entre Argentina, Brasil y sus principales socios comerciales de la UE," Archivos Revista Economía y Política., Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad de Cuenca., vol. 32, pages 155-172, Julio.
    • Handle: RePEc:cun:journl:v:32:y:2020:p:155-172
    DOI: 10.25097/rep.n32.2020.07
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