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La relación entre el tipo de cambio oficial y el tipo de cambio negro en América Latina

Author

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  • Emiliano Libman

    (Centro de Estudio de Estado y Sociedad, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina)

Abstract

La reciente implementación de restricciones cambiarias en Argentina y Venezuela nos invita a revisar la historia del control de cambios en América Latina. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar la efectividad de los controles a la hora de evitar bruscas devaluaciones del tipo de cambio oficial. Nuestro análisis extiende un sencillo modelo de portafolio y propone un test econométrico cuyo fin es indagar sobre la dinámica del tipo de cambio oficial y del tipo de cambio negro a partir de métodos de cointegración en paneles de datos. Encontramos que el tipo de cambio oficial y el tipo de cambio negro mantienen una relación estable de largo plazo y que principalmente el tipo de cambio oficial ajusta en presencia de desequilibrios. Esto sugiere que en América Latina los controles cambiarios no fueron una herramienta efectiva para evitar una brusca devaluación.

Suggested Citation

  • Emiliano Libman, 2018. "La relación entre el tipo de cambio oficial y el tipo de cambio negro en América Latina," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 41(115), pages 43-55, Enero.
    • Handle: RePEc:cud:journl:v:41:y:2018:i:115:p:43-55
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Montes Rojas Gabriel & Dvoskin Ariel & Feldman Germán, 2023. "Exchange-Rate Regime And Sectorial Profitability In A Small Open Economy: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Of Argentina (2016-2023)," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4673, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    2. Rapetti, Martin & Palazzo, Gabriel & Waldman, Joaquin, 2023. "Planes de estabilización: Evidencia de América Latina [Stabilization plans: Evidence from Latin America]," MPRA Paper 118910, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mercado negro; Control de capitales; Cointegración en paneles; Crisis cambiaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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