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The impact of biomedical innovation on US mortality, 1999–2019: evidence partly based on 286 million descriptors of 27 million PubMed articles

Author

Listed:
  • Frank R. LICHTENBERG

    (Columbia University)

  • Kriste KRSTOVSKI

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

We investigate whether the diseases for which there was more biomedical innovation had larger 1999–2019 reductions in premature mortality. Biomedical innovation related to a disease is measured by the change in the mean vintage of descriptors of PubMed articles about the disease. We analyze data on 286 million descriptors of 27 million articles about over 800 diseases. Premature mortality from a disease is significantly inversely related to the lagged vintage of descriptors of articles about the disease. In the absence of biomedical innovation, age-adjusted mortality rates would not have declined. Some factors other than biomedical innovation (e.g., a decline in smoking and an increase in educational attainment) contributed to the decline in mortality. But other factors (e.g., a rise in obesity and the prevalence of chronic conditions) contributed to an increase in mortality. Biomedical innovation reduced the mortality of white people sooner than it reduced the mortality of black people.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank R. LICHTENBERG & Kriste KRSTOVSKI, 2026. "The impact of biomedical innovation on US mortality, 1999–2019: evidence partly based on 286 million descriptors of 27 million PubMed articles," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-27, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:92:y:2026:i:1:p:1-27
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.27
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    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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