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Household structure decisions and positive wealth shocks: a natural experiment from the Spanish Christmas lottery

Author

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  • Levi PÉREZ

    (University of Oviedo)

  • Álvaro MUÑIZ

    (University of Oviedo)

Abstract

This paper explores whether a positive unexpected exogenous (unearned) wealth shock affects household structure decisions in different Spanish regions. The Christmas draw of the Spanish National Lottery is used in a natural experiment as a proxy for exogenous random variations in provincial wealth. A static and dynamic linear panel event-study design allows for control of changing economic and demographic conditions at the province level and the dynamic effects on the analyzed decisions. The evidence is consistent with families getting divorced and having children when the province in which they live experiences an unexpected increase in wealth, but no conclusive effect on wedding plans is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Levi PÉREZ & Álvaro MUÑIZ, 2025. "Household structure decisions and positive wealth shocks: a natural experiment from the Spanish Christmas lottery," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(2), pages 191-209, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:91:y:2025:i:2:p:191-209
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.2
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household structure decisions; Wealth and econmic conditions; Exogenous random Shock; Event-study design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other

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