Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions in Canada: An Updated Meta-Analysis and Policy Guidance

The value of reduced mortality risk (VRMR) is a key element in the economic analysis of public policies. Mortality risk reduction often reflects the major proportion of the total benefits in health, safety, and environmental policy analyses, and thus accurate, updated measures of the VRMR are critical. We conducted a meta-analysis to update the VRMR estimate for Canada based on 158 estimates extracted from 18 primary studies published in 1989–2018. We use weighted least squares, clustered errors, and panel data regression procedures to address different empirical issues in our meta-analysis. Our analysis, based on preferred studies with representative samples, results in a weighted mean VRMR estimate of $13 million in 2020 dollars, whereas the lower and higher values from two alternative valuation methods are about $10 million and $16.5 million, respectively. The updated mean VRMR is 43 percent higher than the current VRMR estimate recommended by the Canadian authority. The meta-regression analysis also shows that the levels of baseline risk and risk reduction are among the main determinants of VRMR estimates. We recommend the application of an updated VRMR estimate in policy evaluations because using the current measure can lead to misleading benefit and cost calculations and potentially inaccurate policy recommendations.