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Efectos de la automatización del empleo sobre las tasas de informalidad y los salarios en México
[Effects of Job Automation on Informality Rates and Wages in Mexico]

Author

Listed:
  • Owen Eli Ceballos Mina

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana)

  • Humberto Guadarrama Gómez

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana)

Abstract

En este artículo se estudian los efectos de la automatización sobre la informalidad y los salarios en México, considerando la escolaridad como mecanismo mediador. Se usan datos del primer trimestre de 2025 de la Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo y la metodología de Frey & Osborne (2017), para estimar modelos de variables instrumentales (VI-MC2E) y ecuaciones estructurales (SEM). Se encuentra evidencia robusta de que una mayor probabilidad de automatización incrementa la tasa de informalidad y reduce los salarios formales e informales, con mayor impacto en ocupaciones de menor escolaridad. Los modelos SEM revelan efectos indirectos significativos vía educación, especialmente sobre la informalidad y los ingresos informales. Los resultados sugieren un efecto de sustitución del empleo por capital, atenuado parcialmente por la educación. Se concluye que la automatización puede profundizar la segmentación laboral si no se acompaña de políticas públicas de recualificación, movilidad ocupacional yfortalecimiento educativo. This article examines the effects of automation on informality and wages in Mexico, considering education level as a mediating mechanism. Data from the first quarter of 2025 of the National Survey of Occupation and Employment and the methodology proposed by Frey and Osborne (2017) are used to estimate instrumental variable models (2SLS-IV) and structural equation models (SEM). Robust evidence is found that a higher probability of automation increases the informality rate and reduces both formal and informal wages, with a greater impact on occupations requiring lower levels of education. The SEM models reveal significant indirect effects through education, particularly on informality and informal income. The results suggest a substitution effect of labor by capital, partially mitigated by education. It is concluded that automation may deepen labor segmentation if not accompanied by public policies promoting reskilling, occupational mobility, and educational strengthening.

Suggested Citation

  • Owen Eli Ceballos Mina & Humberto Guadarrama Gómez, 2025. "Efectos de la automatización del empleo sobre las tasas de informalidad y los salarios en México [Effects of Job Automation on Informality Rates and Wages in Mexico]," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 17, pages 1-31, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:021779
    DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v17.202
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    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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