Armed Group Governance and Civilian Perceptions in Conflict Regions[Estimating the economic growth impacts of the tax reform for equality and social justice: analysis through a deterministic dynamic general equilibrium model for Colombia]

This paper examines how governance by illegal armed groups shapes civilian attitudes and perceptions toward the state in conflict-affected areas of Colombia. Using panel data from the MAPS survey and an event-study difference-in-differences approach, I estimate the effects of armed group rule on formal institutional trust, perceived security, and economic well-being. The results show that, on average, illegal groups’ rule increases trust in civil institutions but leads to declines in perceived economic conditions. Disaggregated analysis reveals contrasting patterns across armed actors: while FARC dissidents and the ELN reduce trust but improve economic perceptions, criminal gangs reinforce trust in formal institutions while coinciding with worsening economic views. These findings highlight that the effects of armed group governance are not uniform, but depend on the group involved, the nature of governance practices, and the broader state context.