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Desempleo, inversión privada y términos de intercambio. Venezuela, 1970-2012

Author

Listed:
  • Pena, Carlos J.

Abstract

La capacidad de absorción de empleo productivo de la economía, depende entre otros factores, del crecimiento económico; sin embargo, éste obedece, en gran medida, a la inversión privada. La literatura teórica y empírica hace hincapié en el vínculo directo entre la inversión privada y la generación de empleo, empero, esa inversión y el crecimiento económico que pueda producir, deben ser estables. En Venezuela, la inversión privada es altamente volátil, lo cual pudiera estar relacionado con los choques externos, generando efectos perversos sobre el mercado de trabajo. Así, el objetivo de este documento es establecer la relación entre el desempleo, la inversión privada y los términos de intercambio para Venezuela en el período 1970 – 2012, utilizando para ello un modelo autorregresivo de media móvil con variables exógenas, ARMAX

Suggested Citation

  • Pena, Carlos J., 2015. "Desempleo, inversión privada y términos de intercambio. Venezuela, 1970-2012," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 25, pages 141-163, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:014643
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desempleo; términos deintercambio; inversión privada; Venezuela;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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