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Comportamiento delictivo en Medellín en tiempos de pandemia, un modelo espacio-temporal

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Londono
  • Esteban Palacio
  • Angélica Preciado
  • Emilio Henao
  • Jessica Salazar
  • Diego Balbín
  • David Restrepo
  • Johan Mira

Abstract

Este artículo buscó identificar el efecto que tuvo la implementación del aislamiento social preventivo obligatorio en las dinámicas de seguridad y convivencia de Medellín, Colombia. Por medio de un modelo de series de tiempo estructural bayesiano, se calculó el peso que tuvo esta medida preventiva en la variación de los indicadores: homicidios, desplazamiento forzado intraurbano, hurto a personas, hurto de motos, hurto de carros, delitos sexuales, violencia intrafamiliar, rinas y lesiones personales. Los resultados mostraron que tuvo un impacto directo y significativo sobre el comportamiento de los indicadores considerados; se registraron aumentos entre el 9,8 y el 173% y disminuciones entre el 22,9 y el 85%, en comparación con las proyecciones realizadas para un escenario sin esta medida.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Londono & Esteban Palacio & Angélica Preciado & Emilio Henao & Jessica Salazar & Diego Balbín & David Restrepo & Johan Mira, 2021. "Comportamiento delictivo en Medellín en tiempos de pandemia, un modelo espacio-temporal," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 37(159), pages 188-199, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000129:019325
    DOI: 10.18046/j.estger.2021.159.4186
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crimen; seguridad; COVID-19; aislamiento preventivo obligatorio; análisis bayesiano;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • Y8 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines

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