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Estimación del riesgo de crédito en empresas del sector real en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Sepúlveda Rivillas

    ()

  • Walter Reina Gutiérrez

    ()

  • Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Betancur

    ()

Abstract

La presente investigación propone un modelo probit para datos de panel desbalanceado con efectos aleatorios, que permita estimar la probabilidad de quiebra de las empresas del sector real en Colombia e inferir el riesgo de crédito. Para esto se toma la información de empresas solventes y en estrés financiero, de las bases de datos de la Superintendencia de Sociedades y de BPR Benchmark, durante 2002–2008. Se partió del análisis fundamental, centrado en los indicadores de rentabilidad, apalancamiento, liquidez y solvencia, que propone Penman (2010). El aporte de esta investigación es el énfasis en los apalancamientos operativo y financiero y su efecto en la probabilidad de quiebra. Como principal hallazgo se resalta el efecto menos nocivo del apalancamiento operativo frente al apalancamiento financiero en épocas de crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Sepúlveda Rivillas & Walter Reina Gutiérrez & Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Betancur, 2012. "Estimación del riesgo de crédito en empresas del sector real en Colombia," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000129:011320
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    File URL: http://www.icesi.edu.co/revistas/index.php/estudios_gerenciales/article/view/1516
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Apalancamiento operativo y financiero; probabilidad de quiebra; panel dedatos desbalanceado.;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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