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El costo de oportunidad del cambio técnico, el crecimiento económico y el caso colombiano 1925-2012

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  • Carlos Esteban Posada

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Abstract

En este documento se presenta un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico con cambio técnico endógeno. El modelo se utiliza como guía de interpretación del caso colombiano del período 1925-2012. Las principales conclusiones son las siguientes: la tasa de cambio técnico y, por tanto, la de crecimiento económico de estado estable dependen de un equilibrio entre el beneficio individual de innovar y su costo de oportunidad; los impactos aleatorios (imprevistos) que apartan la tasa de cambio técnico de su nivel de estado estable tienen efectos permanentes sobre el nivel del producto contrarios a los predichos por el modelo estándar (Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey). En el caso colombiano, las políticas fiscal y de comercio exterior proteccionista han generado, con posterioridad a 1930, efectos permanentes negativos sobre el producto. El canal contemplado por el modelo ha sido la promoción del desvío transitorio de recursos productivos hacia la producción presente en detrimento de las actividades de innovación. ****** This document presents a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous technical change. The model is used to guide an interpretation of the Colombian case for the period 1925-2012. The main conclusions are the following: the steady state technical change and economic growth rates depend upon a balance between the individual benefit for innovation and its opportunity cost. Random shocks causing a gap between the steady state technical change rate and its effective level have a permanent effect on the product level in the opposite direction to the prediction by the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model. After 1930, in Colombia, fiscal and foreign trade policies have generated permanent negative effects on output. According to the paper's model the channel has been the promotion of diversion of productive resources towards the present production at the expense of innovation activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Esteban Posada, 2015. "El costo de oportunidad del cambio técnico, el crecimiento económico y el caso colombiano 1925-2012," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 33(77), pages 149-167, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:013854
    DOI: 10.1016/j.espe.2015.04.002
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