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Nicaragua: inflación de umbral, crecimiento económico y la nueva política monetaria después de la crisis internacional


  • Rolando Gonzales Martínez



Después de la crisis internacional se sugirió elevar las metas de inflación para dar más espacio a la política monetaria durante épocas contractivas del producto. Este estudio propone que el límite para elevar la meta de inflación debería ser el umbral de inflación, definido como aquel por encima del que la variación de precios es perjudicial para el crecimiento económico. Para estimar este umbral se proponen métodos Bayesianos. Los resultados muestran que encima del umbral existe una relación negativa y estadísticamente significativa entre la inflación y las variaciones del producto. ****** After the international crisis, it was suggested that inflation targets should be raised in order to allow more space to monetary policies during contractionary product times. The present study proposes that the limit to raise the inflation target should be threshold inflation, defined as the rate above which price variability is detrimental to economic growth. Bayesian methods are proposed to estimate this threshold. Results suggest that over the threshold there is a negative and statistically significant relationship between inflation and variations in the product.

Suggested Citation

  • Rolando Gonzales Martínez, 2015. "Nicaragua: inflación de umbral, crecimiento económico y la nueva política monetaria después de la crisis internacional," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 33(76), pages 31-43, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:013845

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    Métodos bayesianos; Umbral de inflación; Políticas de la Banca Central;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies


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