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Determinantes del precio de la vivienda nueva No VIS en Medellín: un modelo estructural

Author

Listed:
  • John García Rendón

    ()

  • Sebastían Díaz

    ()

  • Juan Carlos Upegui

    ()

  • Hermilson Velásquez

    ()

Abstract

Esta investigación busca a través de un modelo estructural, identificar los determinantes del precio de la vivienda nueva No VIS en Medellín, con el fin de explicar la formación de precios desde la organización industrial del sector. Los resultados indican que el empleo, el crecimiento económico y las políticas públicas (subsidios) influyen directamente –la inflación tiene injerencia negativa– sobre las condiciones del mercado de vivienda (CMV); simultáneamente, las CMV afectan la oferta y la demanda, fuerzas que, a su vez, inciden en la formación de los precios de mercado. Además identifica la incidencia de las políticas públicas en el aumento de los precios. ***** We employ a multi-equation structural model of the housing market to analyze the determinants of new housing prices in Medellin during 2009-2014. The model includes observed variables and unobserved variables, such as costs that are not included in the housing cost index, but that still affect prices. In the analysis, we employ an industrial organization framework to examine the interaction between microeconomic and macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that employment, economic growth, and public policies (subsidies) affect real housing prices positively, while inflation affects real prices negatively. In addition to the variables typically included in the analysis in prior research, we include several determinants of housing supply, including construction costs, and two market interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • John García Rendón & Sebastían Díaz & Juan Carlos Upegui & Hermilson Velásquez, 2019. "Determinantes del precio de la vivienda nueva No VIS en Medellín: un modelo estructural," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, vol. 38(76), pages 109-136, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000093:017473
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    File URL: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ceconomia/article/view/57032/70021
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    Cited by:

    1. García Rendon, John Jairo & Cossio Sepúlveda, Daniel Mateo & Mesa Urhan, Ricardo, 2018. "Efectos del canal del crŽdito sobre el precio de la vivienda nueva en Medell’n - Colombia || Credit channel effects on new residential property prices: Evidence from Medell’n, Colombia," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 104-127, Diciembre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precio de la vivienda nueva; modelos estructurales; organización industrial; Medellín-Colombia; New housing prices in Medellin; multi-equation structural model; industrial organization.;

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction

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