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Brecha del producto y medidas de la tasa de interés neutral para Colombia

  • Andrés González

    (Universidad de los Andes)

  • Sergio Ocampo
  • Julián Pérez

    (Banco de la República, Colombia)

  • Diego Rodríguez

    (Banco de la República, Colombia)

En este documento se proponen tres medidas nuevas de la brecha del producto y de la tasa de interés real. En vez de basarnos exclusivamente en los filtros estadísticos, las medidas propuestas usan modelos neokeynesianos semiestructurales, adaptados para una economía pequeña y abierta. Las medidas de la brecha del producto presentadas están en concordancia con trabajos anteriores para Colombia y registran todos los puntos de inflexión del ciclo económico de Colombia, siguiendo las mediciones de Alfonso et al., 2011. También están muy relacionadas con la inflación y preceden su movimiento en toda la muestra. La tasa de interés neutral computada indica que la postura de política monetaria ha sido en general anticíclica, pero no ha logrado anticipar los movimientos de la brecha del producto, o al menos no ha reaccionado con suficiente contundencia ante ellos.

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Article provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos in its journal Monetaria.

Volume (Year): XXXV (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (julio-diciembre)
Pages: 251-310

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Handle: RePEc:cml:moneta:v:xxxv:y:2013:i:2:p:251-310
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