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Opinion Polls and Canadian Bond Yields During the 1995 Quebec Referendum

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  • David R. Johnson
  • Darren Mcllwraith

Abstract

Opinion poll announcements during the 1995 Quebec referendum campaign that increased the likelihood of Quebec sovereignty substantially increased the spread on Quebec bond yields over both Canada and Ontario bond yields. Announcements that increased the likelihood of Quebec sovereignty also increased the spread between Government of Canada real return bonds and Government of the United Kingdom real return bonds but had only a weak effect on expected inflation in Canada. Expected inflation is proxied by the spread between nominal and real return bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • David R. Johnson & Darren Mcllwraith, 1998. "Opinion Polls and Canadian Bond Yields During the 1995 Quebec Referendum," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 411-426, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:31:y:1998:i:2:p:411-426
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marie‐Claude Beaulieu & Jean‐Claude Cosset & Naceur Essaddam, 2006. "Political uncertainty and stock market returns: evidence from the 1995 Quebec referendum," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 621-642, May.
    2. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2007. "Government debt spillovers in a monetary union," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 135-154, August.
    3. Graham, Roger C. & Morrill, Cameron K.J. & Morrill, Janet B., 2012. "Does it matter where assets are held and income is derived? Further evidence of differential value relevance from Quebec," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 185-197.
    4. Laurence Booth & George Georgopoulos & Walid Hejazi, 2007. "What drives provincial‐Canada yield spreads?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 1008-1032, August.
    5. Geloso, Vincent J. & Grier, Kevin B., 2022. "Love on the rocks: The causal effects of separatist governments in Quebec," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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