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Finance et croissance : le court terme aux dépens du long terme ?

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Grjebine
  • Fabien Tripier

Abstract

Si plusieurs épisodes récents d’expansion semblent avoir été nourris par des booms financiers et immobiliers, la Grande Récession de 2008-2009 a montré l’importance des coûts économiques d’une croissance financière excessive. Cette tension souligne la complexité des interactions entre croissance économique et finance. Cette Lettre présente les résultats d’une étude publiée par le CEPII qui propose un cadre d’analyse synthétique de la relation entre croissance et finance au cours du cycle économique et à long terme. Si une forte croissance financière s’accompagne d’une croissance économique plus forte sur l’ensemble d’un cycle, le supplément de croissance pendant l’expansion l’emportant sur les pertes en phase de récession, elle réduit la croissance au cours des cycles suivants en raison d’effets de persistance (hystérèse).

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Finance et croissance : le court terme aux dépens du long terme ?," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 364.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepill:2016-364
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/lettre/2016/let364.pdf
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    Keywords

    CRISE;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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