IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial stress and economic dynamics: The case of France


  • Sofiane Aboura
  • Bjoern van Roye


In this paper, we develop a financial stress index (FSI) that can be used as a real-time composite indicator for the state of financial stability. We take 17 financial variables from different market segments and extract a common stress component using a dynamic approximate factor model. We estimate the model with a combined maximum-likelihood and Expectation-Maximization algorithm allowing for mixed frequencies and an arbitrary pattern of missing data. Using a Markov-Switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVAR), we show that while episodes of high financial stress are associated with significantly lower economic activity, episodes of low financial stress regime are negligible with respect to economic dynamics. The financial stress index can be used to gauge the stability of the French financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofiane Aboura & Bjoern van Roye, 2017. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The case of France," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 149, pages 57-73.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2017-q1-149-5

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2020. "Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Athari, Seyed Alireza, 2021. "Time-frequency dependencies of financial and economic risks in South American countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 170-181.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal, 2020. "The impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market: A Destabilizer Multiplier," MPRA Paper 99376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Helena Ahulu & John MacCarthy & Paul Muda, 2021. "Financial Stability and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa using Panel Data," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 11-18.
    6. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & A. Özlem Önder, 2021. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies: Are spatial effects important?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4653-4669, July.
    7. Baneng Naape & Bekithemba Qeqe, 2022. "How Does Financial Market Stress Respond to Shocks in Global Economic Activity and Exchange Rate Stability? A Structural VAR Approach," Eurasian Journal of Social Sciences, Eurasian Publications, vol. 10(1), pages 25-36.
    8. Theshne Kisten, 2019. "A financial stress index for South Africa: A time-varying correlation approach," Working Papers 805, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    9. Fu, Zheng & Chen, Zhiguo & Sharif, Arshian & Razi, Ummara, 2022. "The role of financial stress, oil, gold and natural gas prices on clean energy stocks: Global evidence from extreme quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Ozcelebi, Oguzhan, 2020. "Assessing the impacts of financial stress index of developed countries on the exchange market pressure index of emerging countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-302.
    11. Nadri , Kamran & Ebrahimi , Sajad & Fadaie , Abbas, 2018. "An Investigation of Co-Movement of Financial Stability Index with Macro-Prudential Indicator through Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(2), pages 125-151, April.
    12. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    13. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Jarallah, Shaif & Barkat, Karim, 2019. "The switching impact of financial stability and economic growth in Qatar: Evidence from an oil-rich country," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 205-216.
    14. Anca Mihaela COPACIU & Alexandra HOROBET, 2022. "Spillovers in the Presence of Financial Stress – An Application to Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-43, April.
    15. Mikhail Stolbov & Alexander Karminsky & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Lead Systemic Risk? A Comparative Analysis of Selected European Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(3), pages 332-360, September.
    16. Haddou, Samira, 2022. "International financial stress spillovers to bank lending: Do internal characteristics matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Leonardo Badea & Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Iulian Panait & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "A Markov Regime Switching Approach towards Assessing Resilience of Romanian Collective Investment Undertakings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, March.
    18. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2021. "Macrofinancial linkages in Europe: Evidence from quantile local projections," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5557-5569, October.
    19. Panagiota Makrychoriti & Fotios Pasiouras & Menelaos Tasiou, 2022. "Financial stress and economic growth: The moderating role of trust," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 48-74, February.
    20. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    21. Tai-Hock Kuek & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2020. "Financial Vulnerability and Economic Dynamics in Malaysia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 55-73.
    22. Andisheh Saliminezhad & Pejman Bahramian, 2021. "The role of financial stress in the economic activity: Fresh evidence from a Granger‐causality in quantiles analysis for the UK and Germany," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1670-1680, April.

    More about this item


    Financial stress index; Financial crises; Financial stability; Macro-financial linkages; Bayesian Markov-Switching VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2017-q1-149-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.