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Financial stress and economic dynamics: The case of France

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  • Sofiane Aboura
  • Bjoern van Roye

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a financial stress index (FSI) that can be used as a real-time composite indicator for the state of financial stability. We take 17 financial variables from different market segments and extract a common stress component using a dynamic approximate factor model. We estimate the model with a combined maximum-likelihood and Expectation-Maximization algorithm allowing for mixed frequencies and an arbitrary pattern of missing data. Using a Markov-Switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVAR), we show that while episodes of high financial stress are associated with significantly lower economic activity, episodes of low financial stress regime are negligible with respect to economic dynamics. The financial stress index can be used to gauge the stability of the French financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofiane Aboura & Bjoern van Roye, 2017. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The case of France," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 149, pages 57-73.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2017-q1-149-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Theshne Kisten, 2019. "A financial stress index for South Africa: A time-varying correlation approach," Working Papers 805, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Jarallah, Shaif & Barkat, Karim, 2019. "The switching impact of financial stability and economic growth in Qatar: Evidence from an oil-rich country," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 205-216.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Mikhail Stolbov & Alexander Karminsky & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Lead Systemic Risk? A Comparative Analysis of Selected European Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(3), pages 332-360, September.
    5. Ozcelebi, Oguzhan, 2020. "Assessing the impacts of financial stress index of developed countries on the exchange market pressure index of emerging countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-302.
    6. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal, 2020. "The impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market: A Destabilizer Multiplier," MPRA Paper 99376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Leonardo Badea & Daniel ┼×tefan Armeanu & Iulian Panait & ┼×tefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "A Markov Regime Switching Approach towards Assessing Resilience of Romanian Collective Investment Undertakings," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(5), pages 1-1, March.
    8. Nadri , Kamran & Ebrahimi , Sajad & Fadaie , Abbas, 2018. "An Investigation of Co-Movement of Financial Stability Index with Macro-Prudential Indicator through Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(2), pages 125-151, April.
    9. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Tai-Hock Kuek & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2020. "Financial Vulnerability and Economic Dynamics in Malaysia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 55-73.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stress index; Financial crises; Financial stability; Macro-financial linkages; Bayesian Markov-Switching VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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