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La demande de titres longs par les non-residents explique-t-elle le bas niveau des taux longs publics americains ?

Listed author(s):
  • Bruno Ducoudre

Le taux d’interet a dix ans sur les obligations du Tresor americain reste stable entre le troisieme trimestre 2004 et le troisieme trimestre 2005. Dans le meme temps, la Reserve Federale amorce une periode de hausse du taux des fonds federaux des la fin juin 2004. Le taux long a donc ete souvent juge trop bas. Des simulations dynamiques sont entreprises pour mesurer si son bas niveau est anormal compte tenu de l’evolution des anticipations des agents. Le taux long est ainsi inferieur de 0,5 a 0,9 point a son niveau predit par les simulations. La hausse de la demande de titres longs par l’etranger permet d’expliquer une partie de cet ecart.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 112 ()
Pages: 29-49

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2007-4tb
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