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Les cycles economiques en Tunisie : identification, caracterisation et comparaison internationale

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  • Elachhab Fathi

Abstract

Cet article propose une description des principales regularites empiriques du cycle economique – cycle classique et cycle de croissance – en Tunisie durant la periode 1970-2002. Les resultats obtenus montrent que (i) le cycle de croissance parait plutot symetrique, contrairement au cycle classique ; (ii) pour le cycle de croissance, il semble qu’il n’y ait pas de relation entre la duree d’une phase et la probabilite qu’elle prenne fin, contrairement au cas du cycle classique ; (iii) les regularites empiriques des cycles classique et de croissance sont proches de celles observees dans les pays developpes ; (iv) il existe une forte synchronisation entre le cycle de croissance de la Tunisie et les cycles de ses principaux partenaires europeens.

Suggested Citation

  • Elachhab Fathi, 2007. "Les cycles economiques en Tunisie : identification, caracterisation et comparaison internationale," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 110, pages 31-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2007-2tb
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    File URL: http://www.economieinternationale.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev110/rev110b.htm
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Programme de Bry-Boschan; cycle classique; cycle de croissance; regularites cycliques; synchronisation; croissance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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