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Les cycles economiques en Tunisie : identification, caracterisation et comparaison internationale


  • Elachhab Fathi


Cet article propose une description des principales regularites empiriques du cycle economique – cycle classique et cycle de croissance – en Tunisie durant la periode 1970-2002. Les resultats obtenus montrent que (i) le cycle de croissance parait plutot symetrique, contrairement au cycle classique ; (ii) pour le cycle de croissance, il semble qu’il n’y ait pas de relation entre la duree d’une phase et la probabilite qu’elle prenne fin, contrairement au cas du cycle classique ; (iii) les regularites empiriques des cycles classique et de croissance sont proches de celles observees dans les pays developpes ; (iv) il existe une forte synchronisation entre le cycle de croissance de la Tunisie et les cycles de ses principaux partenaires europeens.

Suggested Citation

  • Elachhab Fathi, 2007. "Les cycles economiques en Tunisie : identification, caracterisation et comparaison internationale," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 110, pages 31-61.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2007-2tb

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    More about this item


    Programme de Bry-Boschan; cycle classique; cycle de croissance; regularites cycliques; synchronisation; croissance;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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