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Peut-on parler de deficits jumeaux pour la Turquie ? Une etude empirique sur la periode 1988-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Jobert
  • Irem Zeyneloglu

Abstract

La Turquie connaît depuis plus de vingt ans a la fois un déficit budgetaire et un deficit commercial. A l’aide des outils de la methodologie VAR (cointegration, tests de causalite au sens de Granger et de causalite instantanee), nous montrons que ce double deficit ne peut etre qualifie de deficits jumeaux. La persistance du deficit budgetaire, malgre un excedent de la balance primaire, s’explique par le niveau des taux d’interet reels et le poids de la charge de la dette qui en resulte. Le deficit commercial trouve son origine dans la structure productive : la Turquie importe des biens intermediaires pour reexporter des produits finis.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Jobert & Irem Zeyneloglu, 2006. "Peut-on parler de deficits jumeaux pour la Turquie ? Une etude empirique sur la periode 1988-2000," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 105, pages 63-83.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2006-1tc
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    File URL: http://www.economieinternationale.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev105/rev105c.htm
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    Cited by:

    1. Demdoumi, Meriem, 2016. "La gestion structurelle des déficits jumeaux au Maroc et la recherche d’une stratégie d’équilibre
      [Structural management of twin deficits in Morocco and Finding an equilibrium strategy]
      ," MPRA Paper 71533, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deficits jumeaux; deficit budgetaire; causalite; politique budgetaire et fiscale; politique commerciale; macroeconomie; politique monetaire; commerce international;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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