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Peut-on parler de deficits jumeaux pour la Turquie ? Une etude empirique sur la periode 1988-2000

  • Thomas Jobert
  • Irem Zeyneloglu

La Turquie connaît depuis plus de vingt ans a la fois un déficit budgetaire et un deficit commercial. A l’aide des outils de la methodologie VAR (cointegration, tests de causalite au sens de Granger et de causalite instantanee), nous montrons que ce double deficit ne peut etre qualifie de deficits jumeaux. La persistance du deficit budgetaire, malgre un excedent de la balance primaire, s’explique par le niveau des taux d’interet reels et le poids de la charge de la dette qui en resulte. Le deficit commercial trouve son origine dans la structure productive : la Turquie importe des biens intermediaires pour reexporter des produits finis.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 105 ()
Pages: 63-83

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2006-1tc
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