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Assessing the Impact of Trade Policy on Labour Markets and Production

  • Joseph F. Francois

This paper discusses the measurement of production and employment effects of trade policy, and more broadly the effects of economic integration and globalization. First, it provides a broad-brush overview of the ex-post literature linking trade to performance, such as measures of worker displacement, adjustment costs, and econometric evidence on trade and wages. It then defines structural impact indexes, illustrating their use with a stylized CGE model-based assessment of the impact of EU enlargement on the transition economies. Finally, the last section discusses the gap between our ex-post experience with adjustment costs, and what ex-ante methods actually tell us.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 99 ()
Pages: 27-47

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2004-3qb
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  1. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
  2. Mutti, John H, 1978. "Aspects of Unilateral Trade Policy and Factor Adjustment Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 102-10, February.
  3. James R. Markusen, 1988. "Production, Trade, and Migration with Differentiated, Skilled Workers," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 492-506, August.
  4. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," Working Paper Series 430, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  5. Joseph F. Francois & Douglas Nelson, 1998. "A Geometry of Specialization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-006/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Winters, L. Alan, 1990. "Labour Adjustment Costs and British Footwear Protection," CEPR Discussion Papers 376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Bale, Malcolm D., 1976. "Estimates of trade-displacement costs for U.S. workers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 245-250, August.
  8. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou & Pavcnik, Nina, 2003. "Trade, Wages and the Political Economy of Trade Protection: Evidence from the Colombian Trade Reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 3877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Baldwin, Robert E. & Mutti, John H. & Richardson, J. David, 1980. "Welfare effects on the United States of a significant multilateral tariff reduction," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 405-423, August.
  10. Wood, Adrian, 1997. "Openness and Wage Inequality in Developing Countries: The Latin American Challenge to East Asian Conventional Wisdom," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 33-57, January.
  11. Greenaway, David & Hine, Robert C. & Wright, Peter, 1999. "An empirical assessment of the impact of trade on employment in the United Kingdom," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 485-500, September.
  12. F. R. Casas, 1984. "Imperfect Factor Mobility: A Generalization and Synthesis of Two-Sector Models of International Trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 747-61, November.
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