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Les pays du sud de l'Europe doivent-ils craindre l'elargissement de l'UEM aux PECO ?

  • Fabrice Darrigues
  • Jean-Marc Montaud

Ce travail developpe un modele d'economie geographique avec mobilite du capital et differentiel de fiscalite visant a apprecier les consequences de l'adhesion des PECO sur les equilibres spatiaux dans l'UEM. La nature du commerce des PECO se rapprochant de celle des pays du sud de l'Europe, un possible effet d'eviction de l'ancienne peripherie peut être envisage. Dans un premier temps, nous raisonnons sur un cas symetrique. Il apparaît que l'efficacite d'une politique fiscale est determinee par le degre d'achevement d'une integration regionale. Dans un second temps, des asymetries sont introduites entre les deux regions refletant les differences entre les pays du sud et les PECO. Cet exercice revele que l'integration regionale devrait aboutir a une polarisation des activites au detriment des nouveaux entrants.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): 91 ()
Pages: 35-56

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2002-3tb
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