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L'insoutenable legerete de l'euro


  • Vincent Koen
  • Laurence Boone
  • Alain de Serres
  • Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln


Pendant les premieres annees de l'union monetaire, la faiblesse de l'euro a surpris la plupart des observateurs. Les explications se sont multipliees allant de fondamentaux tels que les differentiels de croissance anticipes aux facteurs psychologiques tels que les comportements gregaires, mais aucune ne rend compte pleinement a elle seule de la trajectoire du taux de change. Partant d'une approche eclectique, ce papier propose une analyse empirique montrant que les termes de l'echange et les comportements d'epargne/investissement ont apparemment sous-tendu l'evolution du taux de change a moyen et plus long terme.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln, 2001. "L'insoutenable legerete de l'euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 88, pages 77-106.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2001-4td

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:cii:cepidt:1898-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2000. "Non-Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 284-314, June.
    3. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Freudenberg & Nicolas Peridy, 1997. "Trade Patterns Inside the Single Market," Working Papers 1997-07, CEPII research center.
    4. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    5. Antoine Bouët, 2000. "La mesure des protections commerciales nationales," Working Papers 2000-15, CEPII research center.
    6. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    7. Guillaume Gaulier, 2001. "Discrimination commerciale : une mesure à partir des flux bilatéraux," Working Papers 2001-04, CEPII research center.
    8. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters,in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Antoine Bouët & Lionel Fontagné & Mondher Mimouni & Xavier Pichot, 2001. "Market Access Maps: A Bilateral and Disaggregated Measure of Market Access," Working Papers 2001-18, CEPII research center.
    10. Laird, S., 1996. "Quantifying Commercial Policies," Papers 96-001, Stanford - Institute for Thoretical Economics.
    11. Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 1997. "Measurement of Non-Tariff Barriers," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 179, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item


    Euro; taux de change; Banque Centrale Europeenne; interventions; flux de capitaux;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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