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L'insoutenable legerete de l'euro

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Koen
  • Laurence Boone
  • Alain de Serres
  • Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln

Abstract

Pendant les premieres annees de l'union monetaire, la faiblesse de l'euro a surpris la plupart des observateurs. Les explications se sont multipliees allant de fondamentaux tels que les differentiels de croissance anticipes aux facteurs psychologiques tels que les comportements gregaires, mais aucune ne rend compte pleinement a elle seule de la trajectoire du taux de change. Partant d'une approche eclectique, ce papier propose une analyse empirique montrant que les termes de l'echange et les comportements d'epargne/investissement ont apparemment sous-tendu l'evolution du taux de change a moyen et plus long terme.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln, 2001. "L'insoutenable legerete de l'euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 88, pages 77-106.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2001-4td
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev88/rev88d.htm
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro; taux de change; Banque Centrale Europeenne; interventions; flux de capitaux;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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