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Dette publique et investissements prives : le cas de la Turquie

  • Burak Gürbüz
  • Marc Raffinot

L'effet de la dette sur l'investissement prive est theoriquement indetermine. En effet, selon la theorie, le lien entre la dette et l'investissement prive peut aussi bien etre negatif (effet d'eviction) que positif (effet accelerateur sur la croissance economique et donc sur l'investissement prive). Cet article consiste a identifier la nature de ce lien dans le cas de la Turquie sur la periode 1963-2000. Il estime cette relation sur deux periodes : 1963-98 et 1988-2000, compte tenu du developpement d'un marche financier domestique qui a permis de remplacer en partie la dette publique exterieure par une dette interieure. Ces estimations donnent deux effets distincts : la dette externe a un effet positif sur les investissements prives, tandis que la dette interne exerce un effet d'eviction.

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File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev86/rev86f.htm
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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): 86 ()
Pages: 125-142

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2001-2tf
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