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Niederlande: Mit erneuertem »Polder-Modell« aus der Flaute?

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  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze

Abstract

In den Niederlanden ist das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2002 um 0,3% gestiegen, womit es im westeuropäischen Vergleich auf einen der hinteren Ränge zurückfiel. Die Arbeitslosenquote erhöhte sich im Jahresdurchschnitt auf 2,7%, und der Preisanstieg war mit 3,9% einer der stärksten in Westeuropa. Auch dieses Jahr wird die Konjunktur erheblich gedämpft. Das reale BIP dürfte lediglich um ¼% expandieren. Die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird sich über das Jahr weiter verschlechtern und zu einer Arbeitslosenquote von 4% führen. Der Preisauftrieb wird sich dagegen verlangsamen und knapp 2¾% betragen. 2004 wird die Konjunktur an Dynamik gewinnen, und das reale BIP dürfte um gut 1½% wachsen. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird annähernd auf dem Stand von 2003 verharren, und die Konsumentenpreise werden sich um 1½% erhöhen.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze, 2003. "Niederlande: Mit erneuertem »Polder-Modell« aus der Flaute?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(11), pages 34-42, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:11:p:34-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wirtschaftswachstum; Sozialprodukt; Konjunktur; Niederlande;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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