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New Residential Construction in Europe: Bottoming Out in 2002. Selected Results of the EUROCONSTRUCT Summer Conference 2002 in Dublin

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  • Volker Rußig

Abstract

According to the projections of the EUROCONSTRUCT partner institutes, which met for the 53rd EUROCONSTRUCT conference in Dublin on 7 June 2002, the number of completed housing units in newly built residential housing will drop by more than 100,000 housing units to about 1.95 million units. For 2003 only a small and in 2004 a more noticeable recovery is expected. Housing completions in the 15 Western and four Central Eastern European countries will rise above the “magic line” of around 2.03 million housing units. Residential construction intensity will only reach 4.3 housing units per thousand inhabitants in 2004, however. In 1998 this indicator stood at 4.7. The crisis in new residential construction is primarily caused by Western Europe; especially Germany and Spain, but also Austria, Ireland, Italy and Portugal are still pulling downward. In contrast, the recovery in Belgium, Denmark, France, Switzerland and the United Kingdom started much earlier. In the Central Eastern countries a continuous expansion of new residential construction is expected (with the exception of Poland in 2002). Hence there is no synchronous movement of the residential construction cycles (yet). Construction of owner occupied homes as well as apartment buildings will reach its trough in 2002, construction of new one and two-family homes will then rise more speedily. There are still big differences among the 19 countries under consideration regarding their position in the (residential) construction cycle and the composition of completions. The housing stock will rise to almost 200 million units by 2004; but there is by no means no saturation. The degree of housing provision hardly increases because the number of private households is growing at the same slow pace as the housing stock. Residential construction intensity as well as the residential housing coefficient as coefficients “adjusted for size” are declining in Europe until 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Volker Rußig, 2002. "New Residential Construction in Europe: Bottoming Out in 2002. Selected Results of the EUROCONSTRUCT Summer Conference 2002 in Dublin," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(13), pages 25-32, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:55:y:2002:i:13:p:25-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Volker Rußig, 2002. "Building Activity in Europe: Following the Lull, Markedly Higher Growth Contributions Again," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(14), pages 27-36, July.
    2. Volker Rußig, 2003. "Continuing decline in housing completions in Europe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 11-19, January.
    3. Volker Rußig, 2003. "Construction activity in Europe: Anxiously awaited upswing Further results of the 54th EUROCONSTRUCT winter conference 2002," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(03), pages 11-22, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction

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