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Dänemark: Zunächst weiter ohne Euro

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  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze
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    Im Jahr 2000 erholte sich die Konjunktur schneller als erwartet. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte um 2 1/2 % zugenommen haben, die Arbeitslosenquote im Jahresdurchschnitt auf ungefähr 4 3/4 % gesunken sein. 2001 dürfte das reale BIP um etwa 2% expandieren. Die Beschäftigung nimmt langsamer zu, und die Arbeitslosenquote wird auf etwa 4 1/2 % sinken. Der Ende September 2000 in einem Referendum abgelehnte Beitritt Dänemarks zur EWU hat bisher noch keine negativen Auswirkungen gezeigt. Längerfristig werden indes größere Risiken gesehen. Gegenüber den Euro-Ländern könnten u.a. die Zinsen höher, die Attraktivität für ausländisches Kapital geringer, die Möglichkeiten zum Ausschöpfen der Vorteile des EU-Binnenmarktes ebenso wie der Schutz vor Wechselkursschwankungen und spekulativen Attacken eingeschränkter sein.

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    Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 54 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 02 (October)
    Pages: 34-40

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:02:p:34-40
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