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AIECE-Prognose: Weltrohstoffpreise 2000/2001

Listed author(s):
  • Hans-Dieter Karl

Nachdem das Rohstoffpreisniveau - gemessen am HWWA-Index auf Dollarbasis - 1998 um 22% gesunken war, hat es sich in den ersten neun Monaten des laufenden Jahres infolge des ungewöhnlich steilen Anstiegs der Rohölpreise kräftig erhöht. Die Institute der AIECE-Arbeitsgruppe prognostizierten für 1999 und 2000 jeweils um 12% höhere Rohstoffpreise. Die Entwicklung ist hauptsächlich auf die Verteuerung des Rohöls zurückzuführen (für den Durchschnitt dieses Jahres rechnet die Gruppe mit einem Ölpreis von 18 $ pro Barrel, für 2000 mit 21 $ pro Barrel). Nicht-energetische Rohstoffe dürften sich 1999 noch um 8% verbilligen und erst im nächsten Jahr fester notieren (+ 7%). Da der Einbruch des Gesamtindex im Jahr 1998 nur teilweise wieder ausgeglichen wird, sind von den höheren Rohstoffpreisen unmittelbar keine negativen Rückwirkungen auf die Konjunktur in den Industrieländern zu erwarten. Positive Effekte könnten sich sogar dadurch ergeben, daß die Rohstoff produzierenden Länder wieder mehr Industriegüter nachfragen.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 52 (1999)
Issue (Month): 31 (February)
Pages: 13-21

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:52:y:1999:i:31:p:13-21
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