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AIECE-Prognose : Weltrohstoffpreise 2000

Author

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  • Hans-Dieter Karl

Abstract

Der Bericht faßt die wesentlichen Ergebnisse der Tagung der Vereinigung Europäischer Konjunkturforschungsinstitute (AIECE) zum dem Gesichtspunkt der Weltrohstoffpreise zusammen. Es wird davon ausgegangen, daß das Bruttoinlansprodukt in den OECD-Ländern im Jahre 1999 und 2000 um jeweils gut 2% wächst und daß das Welthandelsvolumen im Jahr 2000 um etwa 6% expandiert. Unter diesen Voraussetzungen und auf der Basis eines Wechselkurses von rund 1,09 US$ pro Euro wird für den Jahresdurchschnitt mit einem neuerlichen Rückgang der Rohstoffpreise gerechnet. Der für das Jahr 2000 prognostizierte Anstieg um 10% ist im wesentlichen auf die erwartete Erholung des Rohölpreises zurückzuführen. Allerdings dürften sich auch nicht-energetische Rohstoffe um ungefähr 7% verteuern.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Dieter Karl, 1999. "AIECE-Prognose : Weltrohstoffpreise 2000," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(13), pages 8-15, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:52:y:1999:i:13:p:8-15
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