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  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze
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    Der vorliegende Bericht gibt einen Überblick über die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Frankreich im Jahr 1997 und prognostiziert die konjunkturelle Perspektiven für die Jahre 1998 und 1999. Demnach expandierte das BIP in Frankreich 1997 um 2,4%. Das Wachstum war dabei überwiegend exportgetragen. Trotz leichter zunehmender Beschäftigung erhöhte sich die Arbeitslosenquote auf 12,5%. 1998 wird der Aufschwung kaum an Tempo, wohl aber bei steigender Inlandsnachfrage an Breite gewinnen. Das Wachstum des realen BIP dürfte sich auf 2,75% erhöhen. Auf dem Arbeitsmarkt bessert sich die Lage allmählich etwas. Die Arbeitslosenquote könnte auf 11,5% sinken. 1999 dürfte sich der Aufschwung mit einer ähnlichen Wachstumsrate des BIP wie 1998 fortsetzen. Die Arbeitslosenquote könnte dann sogar unter 11% fallen. Der Preisanstieg wird sich wahrscheinlich nur wenig auf 1,5% beschleunigen.

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    Article provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 51 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 14 (October)
    Pages: 32-45

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:51:y:1998:i:14:p:32-45
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