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AIECE-Prognose : Weltrohstoffpreise 1997

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  • Lothar Scholz

Abstract

Die Arbeitsgruppe Rohstoffpreise der Vereinigung europäischer Konjunkturforschungsinstitute (AIECE) hat sich am 28. und 29. März mit der Entwicklung der internationalen Rohstoffpreise befaßt. Unter der Annahme, daß das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt in den westlichen Industrieländern 1996 um 1,7 % und 1997 um 2,4 % wächst, der Welthandel, nach 6 % in diesem Jahr, im nächsten Jahr um über 7 % expandiert und sich der US-Dollar im Prognosezeitraum nicht deutlich aufwertet, rechnet die Gruppe für 1996 mit einer Verbilligung nicht-energetischer Rohstoffe um 6 % und für 1997 mit nahezu stabilen Preisen. Insgesamt, d.h. einschließlich der Energierohstoffe, ergibt sich für 1996 ein konstantes Preisniveau und für 1997 ein Anstieg um 1 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Lothar Scholz, 1996. "AIECE-Prognose : Weltrohstoffpreise 1997," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 49(13), pages 22-28, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:49:y:1996:i:13:p:22-28
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