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Konjunkturentwicklung Japans 1992 und 1993

Listed author(s):
  • Hanns-Günther Hilpert
Registered author(s):

    Japan befindet sich in der tiefsten Abschwungphase seit der ersten Ölkrise im Jahre 1974. Der Prozeß der konjunkturellen Abkühlung, der vor ungefähr einem Jahr einsetzte, hat sich im Laufe des Jahres 1992 ständig verstärkt. Das reale Bruttosozialprodukt wird 1993 nur noch um weniger als 2% zunehmen. Bei sinkender Investitionsnachfrage und stagnierendem Konsum sind konjunkturstimulierende Momente allein von den Exporten und von den nunmehr verstärkt einsetzenden öffentlichen Investitionen zu erwarten. Die nach den Bestandswertverlusten der zwei letzten Jahre und den scharfen Gewinnrückgängen des laufenden Jahres notwendige Konsolidierungsphase im Unternehmens- und Finanzsektor wird aber eine konjunkturelle Besserung noch einige Zeit hinauszögern. Deshalb ist mit einem Aufschwung frühestens in der zweiten Hälfte des kommenden Jahres zu rechnen.

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    Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 45 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 32 (October)
    Pages: 21-27

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:45:y:1992:i:32:p:21-27
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