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Bevölkerungszustrom, EG-Binnenmarkt und Ostöffnung prägen die langfristige Verkehrsentwicklung


  • Werner Hahn
  • Ralf Ratzenberger


Die Prognose kommt zu dem Ergebnis, daß das gesamte Personenverkehrsaufkommen - ohne Luftverkehr und nicht motorisierten Verkehr - zwischen 1990 und 2005 in Westdeutschland um 12% und in Bayern um 15% steigt. Die Expansion wird fast ausschließlich vom Individualverkehr getragen. Der Güterverkehr wird vom Europäischen Binnenmarkt, von der Deutschen Vereinigung und von der Öffnung Osteuropas angeregt. Die im Fernverkehr beförderten Gütermengen werden in Bayern von 1990 bis 2005 um 64% zunehmen, in Westdeutschland dagegen nur um 45%. Da Eisenbahn und Binnenschiffahrt an dem Zuwachs nahezu proportional partizipieren, wird der Anteil der Straße an der Transportleistung des gesamten Güterfernverkehrs im Prognosezeitraum nicht weiter steigen, sondern sogar leicht sinken.

Suggested Citation

  • Werner Hahn & Ralf Ratzenberger, 1992. "Bevölkerungszustrom, EG-Binnenmarkt und Ostöffnung prägen die langfristige Verkehrsentwicklung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 45(09), pages 08-21, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:45:y:1992:i:09:p:08-21

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