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  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze
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    Nachdem die gesamtwirtschaftliche Erzeugung im ersten Halbjahr 1990 noch expandiert hatte, glitt die britische Wirtschaft anschließend in eine überraschend starke Rezession. Mit einer Belebung der Nachfrage ist frühestens im Herbst zu rechnen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) dürfte 1991 um gut 1,5% schrumpfen (1990: +0,5%). Niedrigere Zinsen, sinkende Lohnstückkosten, die anziehende Auslandsnachfrage sowie eine verbesserte Kapazitätsauslastung tragen im Verlauf des nächsten Jahres zu einer spürbaren Zunahme des BIP bei (+1,5 bis 2 %). Die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird sich allerdings noch bis Mitte 1992 weiter verschlechtern. Die Inflationsrate, die im Durchschnitt dieses Jahres wohl noch bei 6% liegen wird, dürfte sich 1992 um 4,5 bis 5 % verlangsamen.

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    Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 44 (1991)
    Issue (Month): 21 (October)
    Pages: 30-36

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:44:y:1991:i:21:p:30-36
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